483— Effectiveness of MMR Vaccination in Orthodox Jewish Neighborhoods

Measles is a highly contagious disease, where large outbreaks arise by direct contact between susceptible (unvaccinated) and infectious individuals. Many Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods were affected by measles from 2018-2019. To quantify the vaccination effort on this susceptible population, a retrospective analysis was used to study the NYC and Rockland County populations using a differential equations model. A subsequent model, known as a realistically-structured network model, studied only the NYC population, in relation to typical household size. Vaccination strategies were applied to three cohorts: unvaccinated family members, members with 1 prior MMR dose, and members with 2 prior MMR doses. The differential equations model suggested the need for earlier vaccination effort and no significant increase was found in the number of associated complications as prior vaccination dosage increased. The network model suggested significantly fewer sick individuals with 1 prior MMR dose (p < 0.001) compared to none, and even more so with 2 prior doses. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of vaccinations, with the potential vulnerability for future complications not being as severe this epidemic, most probably due to rapid vaccination efforts and isolation of exposures.