131 -- Primary Loss to Write-In Victory: A District-Based Analysis of the 2021 City of Buffalo Mayoral Election

The 2021 mayoral election for the City of Buffalo, New York was unprecedented in the city’s history. That year’s Democratic Primary saw India Walton, a union-backed progressive upstart, upset the incumbent Mayor Byron Brown. Brown, having served in consecutive terms since 2005, promptly embarked on a write-in campaign. His rhetoric during the campaign echoed fears of moderates and conservatives towards criminal justice reform and economic equity. In the general election, Brown pulled off an unprecedented write-in victory over Walton. This research will examine the circumstances of this election, by analyzing factors that made each candidate’s campaign successful. Data on election results will be sourced from the Erie County Board of Elections, and data on racial composition of the city, by tract, will be sourced from 2020 U.S. Census Bureau. The research will find that while Walton benefited from strong mobilization of votes in the primary, Brown was able to succeed in mobilizing the white mail-in vote.